The Senate Finance Committee voted earlier today 14-9 to approve the America's Healthy Future Act. All the Dems voted for it, and Sen. Snowe was the only Republican who voted for it. The committee's approval allows the process to proceed to merger with the Senate HELP bill and then to the floor. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has estimated that the bill would cost $829 billion over the next decade and reduce the deficit by more than $80 billion. One reason it's less costly than the House bill is that it doesn’t fix the SGRrrr.

The CBO has slowed activity in the House as they analyze costs and debate whether the House SGR fix must be added to the cost of HR 3200. So, floor action there is unlikely in the next two to three weeks; and the Senate will take some time to sort through their issues as well as they try to merge the Finance and the HELP Committees bills. In terms of more details about the activities on the bills:

First, on the House side:

• The caucus considered several options for reducing the gross cost of their bill to $900 billion, none of which had great appeal to House members.  But that does seem to be an agreed-upon goal. And CBO is watching.
  
  
• The conversation regarding the public option revolved around a version that would use Medicare +5% rates, negotiated rates, or “some combination thereof.”  The last reference appears to suggest a trigger-like mechanism for starting with negotiated rates but moving to Medicare-like rates if savings targets are not achieved – an idea discussed in some of this morning’s press reports.  In sum, a “robust” public option appears likely in the House.  Leadership’s strategy is that is the best means of producing the left-most version in conference, although with the Senate heading for 60 or 61 votes at most, how far that issue can shift in conference is dubious at best.
  
  
• One means of lowering the cost of the bill that’s being considered in the House is to raise the Medicaid eligibility threshold from 133% of poverty to 150%, with the federal government absorbing most, if not all, of those incremental costs.
  
  
• The high-end insurance plan tax is unlikely to be included in the first House-passed bill, although many caucus members acknowledged some version of it is likely to come out of conference with the Senate.

Then, on the Senate side:

• “Rule 28”, which prohibits extraneous provisions from being included in House-Senate conference negotiations, will apply to the HELP-Finance merger process.  Staff for both committees have been adamant that provisions not included in either the final HELP or Senate bills will not be considered at this stage.  We predict that “rule” (more of a “guideline,” as Dr. Peter Venkman would say) will get broken at least once, but it is an added barrier to new issues being introduced to the process in the near term.  The “Manager’s Amendment” laid down once the Senate has moved to the reform bill could include new provisions, and there will likely be extensive consideration of amendments on the floor.
  
  
• Due to the fact that the $81B “surplus” in the Finance bill is “off budget” – because it is derived from new payroll/Social Security tax revenues – we think it is unlikely that the provider “fees” and other offsets and revenue raisers in the bill will change meaningfully during the merger process with HELP.
  
  
• Many Senate Democrats do not consider this the final word on, or even as necessarily relevant to, the public plan debate in that chamber.  Sens. Carper and Snowe continue to push their approaches to a fallback public plan, with the key distinction being Carper’s is almost exclusively state-managed, while Snowe’s would entail a single, federally-chartered corporation that would administer the state-based plans where the trigger has been pulled.  Neither appears to have made significant concessions to the other at this point, but inclusion of some compromise version looks probable via an amendment on the Senate floor.

Every day these and other issues are being debated and debated. We’re in there, pushing for the SGR fix, tort reform, and protection of the physician right of ownership, among other issues. And, we’re always reminding everyone about the 2010 Payment Rule debacle -- and asking they do something about so we can turn our attention to reform.

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