Causes for Cautious Optimism in 2012
I have perhaps too often emphasized the negative side of politics and economics of health care this past year. I feel justified in this. Congress is certainly not heroic; and the looming consequences of health care’s overwhelming contribution to the growing national debt are very concerning. But there are some very positive trends and issues to take into consideration as well.
Medicare cost trends have been considerably lower than CBO projections over 2011 -- of course, the overall costs of Medicare are growing as 10,000 baby boomers a day become eligible, and new diagnostics and therapeutics are being introduced -- but the slowing of the cost curve projections is a positive and unexpected phenomenon.
Science is clearly advancing rapidly, despite the economic downturn. New therapeutic frontiers in cardiovascular care alone are impressive. For example, the promise of much-heralded CETP (cholesteryl ester transfer protein) inhibitor drugs; rapidly evolving genomic, cell therapy, and electrophysiological and imaging advances; and new procedures including transcatheter valve therapy (TVT) are all examples of the stunning pace of scientific evolution.
Despite the controversy surrounding the Affordable Care Act, publicly funded programs have enabled 1.2 million children to gain health insurance since 2008, and according to Obama administration officials, this is in part due to the efforts by many states to sign up eligible children. In addition, millions of previously uninsurable people with high risk conditions now have affordable coverage.
Further, despite the growing political and economic strains on the profession and medicine in general, the best and the brightest physicians and nurses and other clinicians-in-training still aspire to cardiovascular careers and participate with the ACC on the ongoing and stunning reduction of morbidity and mortality in cardiovascular disease. The ACC itself has been able to grow by about 5 percent year-over-year since the recession of 2008 to better serve the CV community and CV patients.
2012 will host the all-important November elections, the Supreme Court ruling on the Affordable Care Act, and the need for deficit limit and reduction action -- it won’t be a boring year. In fact this year will call all of us in medicine to seek ways to help the entire nation deal with all of these critical issues.
There’s still a lot to be optimistic about, folks, but it’s certainly not all rosy.
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