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Temperature, Humidity, Latitude, and Seasonality of COVID-19
Quick Takes
- Distribution of the substantial community outbreaks of COVID-19 along restricted latitude, temperature, and humidity measurements were consistent with a seasonal respiratory virus behavior.
- Researchers may use integrated epidemiological-earth-human systems models, incorporating climate and weather processes as well as data on human interactions to explore which population centers are most at risk and for how long.
- Understanding the cause of seasonality for coronaviruses would aid in determining which areas need heightened surveillance and maximal public health efforts.
Study Questions:
What is the association of climate with the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infection?
Methods:
The investigators conducted a cohort study to examine climate data from 50 cities worldwide with and without substantial community spread of COVID-19. Eight cities with substantial spread of COVID-19 (Wuhan, China; Tokyo, Japan; Daegu, South Korea; Qom, Iran; Milan, Italy; Paris, France; Seattle, US; and Madrid, Spain) were compared with 42 cities that have not been affected or did not have substantial community spread. Data were collected from January to March 10, 2020. Substantial community transmission was defined as ≥10 reported deaths in a country as of March 10, 2020. Climate data (latitude, mean 2-m temperature, mean specific humidity, and mean relative humidity) were obtained from European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ERA-5 reanalysis. Linear regression analysis was used to determine the association between climate data and the number of cases, with logarithm of total number of cases as a dependent variable; and mean 2-m temperature, mean Q, and mean relative humidity as independent variables.
Results:
The eight cities with substantial community spread as of March 10, 2020, were located on a narrow band, roughly on the 30° N to 50° N corridor. They had consistently similar weather patterns, consisting of mean temperatures of between 5 and 11°C, combined with low specific humidity (3-6 g/kg) and low absolute humidity (4-7 g/m3). There was a lack of substantial community establishment in expected locations based on proximity. For example, while Wuhan, China (30.8° N) had 3,136 deaths and 80,757 cases, Moscow, Russia (56.0° N) had 0 deaths and 10 cases and Hanoi, Vietnam (21.2° N) had 0 deaths and 31 cases.
Conclusions:
The authors concluded that the distribution of community outbreaks of COVID-19 along latitude, temperature, and humidity measurements was consistent with the habits of a seasonal respiratory virus.
Perspective:
This cohort study reports that distribution of the substantial community outbreaks of COVID-19 along restricted latitude, temperature, and humidity measurements were consistent with how a seasonal respiratory virus behaves. Researchers may use integrated or coupled epidemiological-earth-human systems models, incorporating climate and weather processes as well as simulated data on human interactions (e.g., travel, population density) to explore questions such as which population centers are most at risk and for how long; where to intensify large-scale surveillance and tighten control measures to prevent spreading. A better grasp of the cause of seasonality for coronaviruses would unquestionably aid in better treatments and/or prevention and can be useful in determining which areas need heightened surveillance and public health efforts.
Clinical Topics: COVID-19 Hub, Prevention
Keywords: Climate, Coronavirus, COVID-19, Humidity, Population Density, Primary Prevention, Public Health, Seasons, Temperature, Weather
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