Polygenic Risk Score Predicts Sudden Cardiac Death

Quick Takes

  • Most sudden and/or arrhythmic death (SAD) events occur among patients without current guideline indications for ICD therapy.
  • A genome-wide polygenic score for coronary artery disease (GPSCAD) combined with other markers identify patients who are at increased risk of SAD, raising the possibility that the polygenic risk score may be useful in identifying patients who may benefit from an ICD.

Study Questions:

Does a genome-wide polygenic score for coronary artery disease (GPSCAD) have utility in sudden and/or arrhythmic death (SAD) risk stratification in patients with coronary artery disease (CAD) and without severe systolic dysfunction?

Methods:

A previously validated GPSCAD was generated utilizing genome-wide genotyping in 4,698 PRE-DETERMINE participants of European ancestry with CAD and left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) >30-35%. The population was dichotomized according to top GPSCAD decile as defined by the general population, and absolute, proportional, and relative risks for SAD and non-SAD were estimated using competing risk analyses.

Results:

Over a median follow-up of 8 years, participants in the top GPSCAD decile were at elevated absolute SAD risk (8.0% vs. 4.8%; p = 0.005) and proportional SAD risk (29% vs. 16%; p = 0.0003) compared with the remainder of the cohort. After controlling for LVEF, clinical factors, and electrocardiogram (ECG) parameters, the top GPSCAD decile was associated with SAD (subdistribution hazard ratio [HR], 1.77; p = 0.002) but not non-SAD (subdistribution HR, 1.00; p = 0.98). The addition of the top GPSCAD decile to the multivariable model significantly improved net reclassification indexes but not the C-index.

Conclusions:

Among CAD patients without severe systolic dysfunction, high GPSCAD specifically predicted SAD and enriched for both absolute and proportional SAD risk, identifying a population of patients who might benefit from defibrillator therapy.

Perspective:

CAD is the most common underlying substrate in patients with sudden death and the majority of those deaths occur in patients with LVEF >35%. Thus, most SAD events occur among patients without current guideline indications for implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD) therapy. In order to address this intermediate-risk population with established CAD, but without severe LV dysfunction, the authors performed an analysis of a validated genome-wide polygenic score for coronary artery disease (GPSCAD), which accounts for up to one-fourth of CAD heritability. The authors found that patients in the top GPSCAD decile were at 77% increased risk for SAD after accounting for LVEF, clinical factors, and ECG parameters. There was no association between top GPSCAD decile and non-SAD.

While prior studies have found that common variants associated with CAD are associated with elevations in SAD in the general population, the present study demonstrates a strong association between those variants and SAD in the presence of established CAD. By studying the intermediate-risk population where SAD rates are 10-fold higher than in the general population, the relative risk elevations are significant enough to warrant consideration of an ICD for primary prevention of SAD. These findings will require a future randomized study to assess the utility of polygenic risk models to identify patients in whom ICD therapy would be valuable.

Clinical Topics: Arrhythmias and Clinical EP, Heart Failure and Cardiomyopathies, Prevention, Atherosclerotic Disease (CAD/PAD), Implantable Devices, SCD/Ventricular Arrhythmias, Atrial Fibrillation/Supraventricular Arrhythmias, Acute Heart Failure

Keywords: Arrhythmias, Cardiac, Coronary Artery Disease, Death, Sudden, Death, Sudden, Cardiac, Defibrillators, Implantable, Electrocardiography, Genotype, Heart Failure, Primary Prevention, Risk Assessment, Risk Factors, Stroke Volume, Ventricular Function, Left


< Back to Listings