New Study Projects Steep Rise in CV Diseases in the US by 2060

By the year 2060, projected rates of cardiovascular risk factors and disease will increase significantly in the U.S., disproportionately affecting racial and ethnic minorities, according to a study published on August 1 in the Journal of the American College of Cardiology.

Reza Mohebi, MD, et al., used logistic regression models based on 2013-2018 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey data and further combining them with 2020 U.S. Census projection counts for years 2025-2060 to estimate the prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors and disease according to age, sex, race and ethnicity. Projected rates were analyzed for the cardiovascular risk factors of diabetes, hypertension, dyslipidemia and obesity, as well as for ischemic heart disease, heart failure, myocardial infarction and stroke.

Results showed that among the general U.S. population all four cardiovascular risk factors are expected to increase from 2025 to 2060, with the largest percentage increase in diabetes (39.3% increase to 55 million persons), followed by dyslipidemia (27.6% to 126 million), hypertension (25.1% to 162 million) and obesity (18.3% to 126 million). Concurrently, researchers found that stroke (33.8% to 15 million) and heart failure (33.4% to 13 million) have the highest projected increases in rates of cardiovascular diseases, followed by ischemic heart disease (30.7% to 29 million) and myocardial infarction (16.9% to 16 million).

Projections for cardiovascular risk factors or diseases from 2025 to 2060 are expected to stabilize for men compared with women (apart from obesity, where women are projected to continue to have a higher prevalence), as well as across age. However, an exponential rise is seen for all projections for cardiovascular risk factors for race/ethnic minority groups, but a gradual decrease for Whites. The Black population is projected to experience the highest burden of the increase in cardiovascular risk factors. In addition, increases in the rate of cardiovascular disease are projected to have the highest impact on the Black and Hispanic populations.

The authors write that “Targeted efforts toward improved screening and equitable access to quality health care in populations with the greatest growth in [cardiovascular] risk factors or disease would be expected to have a substantial impact to reduce future [cardiovascular] risk for the population overall.”

In an accompanying editorial comment, Andreas P. Kalogeropoulos, MD, MPH, PhD, FACC, (Andreas) et al., write “this is an opportunity for professional societies, including the cardiovascular care community, to re-evaluate priorities and strategies, for both training and practice, to best match the growing demands of a changing demographic landscape in the U.S.”

Clinical Topics: Diabetes and Cardiometabolic Disease, Dyslipidemia, Heart Failure and Cardiomyopathies, Prevention, Acute Heart Failure, Hypertension

Keywords: Delivery of Health Care, Hypertension, Heart Failure, Myocardial Infarction, Myocardial Ischemia, Heart Disease Risk Factors, Stroke, Obesity, Dyslipidemias, Cardiology, Diabetes Mellitus, Minority Groups, Risk Factors, Logistic Models, Censuses, Nutrition Surveys, Prevalence, Cardiovascular Diseases

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