A survey of over 2,000 geographical areas of Australia paired with future projections found that growing temperatures will exacerbate the country's burden of cardiovascular disease, according to new research published in the European Heart Journal.

The analysis used a meta-regression model constructed using location-specific predictors, cardiovascular disease data from the Australian Burden of Disease database, and historical temperature modeling from 2003-2018 to calculate the current cardiovascular disease attributable to high temperatures. It then projected future decades using two varied greenhouse gas emission scenarios, Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP)4.5 and RCP8.5. These models were then adjusted through three scenarios of human adaptation: none, partial and full.

Results showed that high temperatures currently contribute to 7.3% of the cardiovascular disease burden in Australia (95% Confidence Interval [CI], 7.0%-7.6%), which can be visualized as 223.8 disability-adjusted life years (95% CI, 221.0-226.6) per 100,000 people.

Under the more extreme RCP8.5 high-emissions model, the burden could more than double (225.6%) by the 2050s in a growing population with no adaptation. Comparatively, the burden would rise by 175.7% from baseline with partial adaptation and 130.6% with full adaptation.

Under the RCP4.5 model, the burden would increase by 182.6% from baseline by the 2050s in a growing population with no adaptation, vs. 156.7% for partial adaptation and 132.3% for full adaptation.

Both models include additional calculations for burden at a shorter time span through the 2030s, and with a constant population vs. a growing one. Across models, Australia's Northern Territory is expected to face the greatest increase.

"The diverse and changing patterns of the attributable burden of [cardiovascular disease] across different jurisdictions in Australia highlight the need for tailored adaption and mitigation strategies to optimize effectiveness in reducing the burden of [cardiovascular disease] amidst a changing climate," write Jingwen Liu, et al. "As patients with [cardiovascular disease] are more at risk during hot weather, it is prudent for clinicians to provide practical advice relating to increasing fluid intake and plant-based diets, reducing outdoor activity levels, and guidelines for storing heat-sensitive medications."

For more on the intersection of extreme weather and cardiovascular disease, read the cover story in the April issue of Cardiology magazine.